The EU-Russian Relationship with Special Reference to the Security of the Baltic States

The EU-Russian Relationship with Special Reference to the Security of the Baltic States

Lecture at the meeting of Euro-Atlantic Group, London, 1 July 2015

When putting Russia-EU issue on the table, we must define the points at the very beginning. What Russia it is going about? As realists (not illusionists like many naive Westerners - Putinsverstehers, etc) we should take into consideration the current Russia of V. Putin and the quite broadly putinized population of common Russians.

 By the collapse of the USSR in 1988-1991 all then embraced nations and countries, not only the former tsarist-times Russian colonies given by the Soviets the false name “republics” plus Baltic States conquered by the Soviets during the Second World War, but also Russia itself desired essential changes – so wished freedom. When the Soviets sent tanks and paratroopers against self-liberating, independence-proclaimed Lithuania, hundreds of thousands of Russians went out into the streets in Moscow, Leningrad and elsewhere joining mass-street protests with slogans “Freedom for Lithuania!”, “Today Lithuania, tomorrow Russia!” If Lithuania would be deprived of freedom, Russia could not expect anything else! The demand to get the dictatorship out was common, as well as the opponent or enemy: the Communist usurpers of power, their big clan ruled from the Kremlin in Moscow. The leaders and servants of the system did not hesitate in sheding blood in Tbilisi, Baku and Vilnius, and as a consequence, the USSR as a dictatorial and going bankrupt system collapsed. After the world-wide re-recognition of the Baltic States, after the following Belovezh Accords at the very end of the “Soviet” story, it seemed that all the self-liberated nations, including Russia, started building democratic open societies or simply democracies.

 The retrograds, preferring or remaining pro old regime, opposed this process seeking revenge (today it would be called revision) and, unfortunately, best succeed in Russia. They stopped the progress and turned Russia’s history back. Thus the new global utopia and illusion that peace will be prevailing there, in Eastern Europe, and aggressive temptations to govern those weaker and even the whole world can be ousted – all that remained far from reality.

 The structures built for the goal of peace, like the UN, appeared powerless, therefore, stay ignored and useless. Who can today appeal to the UN in the case of Putin’s war against the disobedient Ukraine?

 The world of today is divided even deeper in groups or camps of democracies versus anti-democracies. They are opposing each other in principle and somewhere – confronting in field.

 But as for Northern hemisphere and especially Europe, the failed short-time democracy in the current neo-imperial and revisionist Russia does present something special. It became, being failed and lost, the main misfortune for Russian people and growing danger for the others.

As it was recently noticed by the prominent Russian writer Vladimir Voinovich, there is “no reason to rely on Putin’s sound reason” because “Putin’s steps are senseless and detrimental for Russia itself”.

 Anyway, the danger which stems from that situation, both personal and national, is growing. It may and will explode. In which direction, just before the general event that would present a picture of the very Russia as a suicidal bomber?

Remember, there is no reason to rely on sound reason of such leaders of mind as Putin, Dugin or Zhirinovsky. (That’s enough, not to mention thinkers of Al Qaida, Boko Haram, ISIS, etc.).

 Allow me to continue from the point already mentioned – from the failure of the project of UN as peace keeper and builder. It was the era of the UNO, an era of self-confusion for somewhat 60 years, which is closed now. We stare at the new era of Putin’s wars. Republic of Chechnya, which was already recognized by Yeltsin’s Russia as a subject of international law, then Republic of Georgia, now Ukraine... Who’s next?

Let’s understand that there is neither Ukrainian case, nor Baltic case (as repeated eventuality), but Russian case and exact the beginning of the era of Putin’s wars.

 From the textbooks one can remember the era of Napoleon’s wars. They shook Europe, they left ruins and ashes, but also something positive. To remind at least of Napoleon’s Code. After the current era of Putin’s wars, no new code like “guilty is the one who was beaten” (authentic quotation of Mr. Putin, like from the Stone Age) will remain, only ruins and ashes.

The war in Europe is again going on.

 The Baltic States are often mentioned as a matter of concern. That’s related to that new expansionism and desperate aggressiveness of the putinist Russia. Among those concerned are the Balts themselves, but what really matters, is a much broader thing. The concern becomes global.

 The Baltic States are not for themselves. They are a part of European democratic Community and specifically – they are NATO. Not besides it, not in NATO, but NATO itself. This should be realized better.

 Exactly now NATO people were repeatedly challenged by opinion polls: do they think that in case one NATO state (supposedly, a smaller one) is attacked (supposedly, by Russia), their country must be involved in the conflict due to the principle of collective defence? The question was incorrect, but let us leave it for later and look at the current results.

In several important NATO Member States the majority of respondents said “No”. – let those attacked perish, as “we” prefer to continue our egoistic pigs’ life a little bit longer.

 We may rely here that it would not (yet) be the stance of the Governments. But the signal of encouragement of the aggressor was sent. And the ultimate danger (a dream of the aggressor) is that the eventual moral collapse of the entire NATO as a pillar able to stop even global escalation of terrorist wars, means that it is able to betray itself.

 Of course, the correct question should have sounded like this: if a single (eventually, smaller) NATO Member State is attacked by an aggressor, should entire NATO consolidate or capitulate? The true challenge, for the first time approaching NATO as a war in any open or clandestine “hybrid” form, is this: are you one entity, in danger, or many? If one, then the war may pass by. When you are dispersed, war is at your gate.

 From that very point of view, if someone wishes, the future of the Baltic States and nations may be seen as a litmus test for world-wide challenges and developments.

 Why are they endangered? – the Balts?

 Because there is a neighbour for whom no norms of international behaviour exist, only his own desire and demand.

 That style of action, unfortunately, has deep roots.

 Please, consider what comrade Molotov said in 1939 to his counterpart Estonian Foreign Minister:

 “We need access to the Baltic Sea. Don’t force us to use force”. Fine, isn’t it? We need it, and that’s all. While delaying with the capitulation, you become guilty.

 I just remembered from many years ago, an elderly Russian lady giving advice to a young girl: “if man needs, you should not oppose”.

 Such is the culture. It caused two million German women raped at the end of WWII. Possibly, the consequences still exist.

 What about today’s political culture in putinist Russia? Two points are evident as a conscious strive and goal of the current leadership.

 The first one is total bokoharamization of the Russian people. That damned West, our enemy, must be destroyed! Together with all those traitors among us (“nationalpredateli”), who like the West with all its colonial tricks including human rights and rule of law. (Definition by Mr. Putin).

 The second is bedlamization of Russia’s political leadership. Take the point that those youths from the Baltic States, recruited to the Red Army, who left barracks and returned to their homelands already proclaiming independence, now, after 25 years, should be treated as Soviet deserters! Or that latest convulsion of mind: Prosecutor General’s office of Russia, on request of fascist-minded parliamentarians in the Russian Duma, started investigation that recognition of the restored independence of the Baltic States – at the very end of USSR’s existence – was illegal act... It is like the former hostage of a terrorist, who escaped captivity, would be treated by the same terrorist as having self-liberated illegally! Bedlamization plus war of nerves plus possible preparation for something worst.

 For my final point speaking about security in the very middle of Europe, I wish to touch upon a greatly important issue of Koenigsberg-Kaliningrad.

 That land – a piece of Europe – and the new people replaced from Russia during and after the war do deserve sympathy. That “district” from nowhere could be called, in Molotov’ style, “bastard of Potsdam” (born in 1945) and is a real misfortune for the population not allowed to be Europeans and receive European aid to cope with, at least, enormous post-Soviet military pollution. Politically it does present an abnormal situation – “Eurasia” in the middle of Europe – and a ticking bomb in case when/if the unreasonable Kremlin decides to start all-European war.

 The call, going from Lithuania to have true Peace Conference ending WWII also in this aspect, is worth every consideration.

Geopolitika.lt, 2015-08-04