What‘s next for the Kremlin, and how to prepare?

What‘s next for the Kremlin, and how to prepare?

Transatlantic Renewal Roundtable Series, Vilnius, 3 November 2015

Around 2000, the world entered – first Europe, now also Middle East – an undefined epoch of Putin’s wars. That latest one on in Syria, with a real invasion by Russian forces, is already the forth on time-line. Where is going to be the fifth?

Many have to predict, that after Ukraine, either Latvia or Moldova should be attacked. Everyone among the neighbours, if Russia is not contained, especially if too independent and not asking for former master’s grace, was blamed of its “provocative” behaviour. Suggestions resounded from Russia’s military elite and policy writers, that to attack sooner is preferable – before NATO is better prepared in logistics and the US administration may gain – regain – courage and resolution (one year for granted).

 Anyway, the situation with oil prices and bad perspective to lose the last satellite (even protectorate) across the Mediterranean caused Putin’s move to invade Syria.

 Nobody can predict now or be assured that with the unfinished expansionist, revengeful war business in Georgia, Ukraine and now the Middle East, Mr. Putin will not proceed further. He truly needs ever new “successes” for his duped nation.

 With Putin’s visionary gift and passion for surprises, when the natural need is pressing and delirium of victories calling, don’t refuse even distant jumps – into the Arctic area or Latin America. Russian navy exercises around Folkland Islands can make Putin hero not only in the eyes of Argentinians, but of all Latino Americans, who don’t love the arrogant rich – be they gringos of outdated British colonists. And Mr. Putin passionately likes to be a hero. A drunken sailor likes most to destroy the crew’s cabin, especially when he has some difficulties. The main question here is the crew.

The West is split. How it can be prepared for very big challenges as to oppose Russia’s worldwide expansionism via destruction around plus global bribery? – see the suggestions.

Option 1: To show the aggressor the true costs of the destruction of the United Nations’ based order of peace; costs bigger and more painful than the current economical sanctions or little diplomatic abuses. If the West or democracies are able to get consolidated for a time putting aside mutual rivalries, it could yet provide (if that is not yet running) half secret (but leaking) consultations about when that unreasonable state is ousted from the WTO, SWIFT and the rest pre-war clubs of gentlemen.

 Together with an impressive show of anti-missile force (as recently), it could be helpful to bring the neotots – neototalitarian dreamers – to reason. Maybe it is worth trying.

Option 2: one more and eventually strongly re-sobering means would be to initiate top-top-secret (but leaking) talks – negotiations between the Euro-Atlantic West and China, meaningly about the world’s future after the crazy putinist Russia crumbles again and ceases to exist. With the provision that China agrees for 200 years not to pass and climb over the Ural Mountains. Such news could come suggesting Moscovia to build up its own rather normal, workable and co-operative European state.

 This picture would contain a soft and friendly suggestion of preferable sobriety, with a Christian hope that Russian people are still fit for that.